Università degli studi di PaviaFacoltà di IngegneriaIstituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di PaviaEucentreIstituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
Computational Mechanics &
Advanced Materials Group
CompMech News - July 17, 2020


Modeling the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 with a computational mechanics approach


Researchers at in the CompMech group, lead by our postdoc Alex Viguerie, have worked over the past months to develop a model of spatiotemporal spread of COVID19 using concepts from computational mechanics to help identify the pattern of contagion in both space and time.

Simulated outbreak using artificial data

Fig. 1 The model simulation for Lombardy; we see the outbreak beginning in Codogno and Cremona before reaching the major urban areas of Brescia, Bergamo, and Milano.

This has been an international effort also involving researchers from RWTH Aachen Group, Emory University and the ODEN institute of the University of Texas at Austin. Early results from this effort have been recently published in the journal Applied Mathematics Letters and can be viewed here.

Simulated outbreak using artificial data

Fig. 2 The model works by dividing the population into different groups based on diseased status.

The work both accurately models the spread of COVID19 in the Italian region of Lombardy, as well as evaluating several different reopening scenarios and the potential impacts.

An evaluation of various reopening scenarios

Fig. 3 Based on data observed since, it seems that the reopening has been in line with our optimistic projections.

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